U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, along with his repeated musings about Canada becoming the 51st state dominated Election 2025 and caused a dramatic shift in the polls, propelling Mark Carney to lead the federal liberals to a fourth consecutive term in office.

Late last year, the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, held a 25% lead in the polls, and were cruising towards victory on the twin planks of the need to dump both Justin Trudeau and the carbon levy on gas.

By early January Mr. Trudeau was gone. By late January, U.S. President Donald Trump began to attack Canada and Mexico bringing in tariffs on certain key sectors with threats to impose further economic pain.  Canadians reacted and the primary ballot question began to coalesce around who could best stand up to President Trump.

By early March former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, won the Liberal leadership in a landslide with over 85% of the ballots cast.

Mr. Carney was sworn in as Prime Minister and prior to triggering the election he governed for nine days, during which he eliminated the carbon levy, united the Premiers on a Team Canada approach to Mr. Trump, cancelled the planned capital gains tax changes, and embarked on a quick trip to England and France to firm up international relations with key allies.

By the time the short 35-day federal campaign began the Conservative lead in the polls had vanished. Mr. Poilievre stubbornly stuck with his gameplan, refusing to pivot. In the end, this led to his squandering a massive lead and losing the election.

When the dust settled on April 28th the Liberals had a strengthened minority government, in a remarkable two-party race that squeezed out all others, particularly the NDP, who were reduced to seven seats, and just 6.3% of the national vote –  their lowest result in decades.

Both the Liberals and the Conservatives increased their vote share.  For the first time since 1930 they both achieved over 40% of the vote.  They combined to win 85% of the total vote, the first time since 1958 that they exceeded the 80% threshold.

Former PC cabinet minister and Quebec premier, Jean Charest put it succinctly in a Globe and Mail profile on Carney saying, “You’re the luckiest fucking guy in Canadian Politics.”  Indeed!

Carney was in the right place, at the right time, and in the eyes of many voters, was the best person to face Mr. Trump.  

The outcome of the election has many fascinating sub-plots, beginning with Mr. Poilievre.  He prosecuted former PM Justin Trudeau, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh successfully over a two-year period where he seemed to be in permanent campaign mode.

He did this so successfully that Mr. Trudeau was forced out by his own caucus, and Mr. Singh was marginalized in the two-party face off that became Campaign 2025.

Poilievre won 41.3% of the national vote, a level not attained by Conservatives, since 1988.

But the Liberals won 43.7% and the fact that their vote is more efficient, led to their victory, but not the coveted majority they sought.

In addition to battling Liberals, Mr. Poilievre had to fight within his own Conservative family.  Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s campaign manager, Kory Teneycke accused the Poilievre team of “campaign malpractice” for their refusal to shift gears and recognize that the ballot question had changed.

Former Reform Party Leader, Preston Manning felt the need to weigh in and suggest that a vote for Mr. Carney, amounted to a “vote for Western secession”. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, a lukewarm player on Team Canada, offered up a regular stream of Alberta grievances. These did not hurt Mr. Carney in Alberta, but they did not help him in the rest of the country. 

The final surprising irony for Mr. Poilievre was the loss of his own Ontario seat, which he had held since 2004. He will miss the opening session of the new parliament, but will be back via a safe Alberta seat being opened for him, likely sometime this fall.

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh lost his seat as well and resigned on election night.  It will be a long road back for the party that has been a constant feature of federal politics since 1961.  Many workers have left the NDP universe, and the next leader will have fewer resources and a tall mountain to climb to return to federal party status.

The NDP bled votes to both the Liberals and the Conservatives. Their problems have been building for years.  In 2011, 4.5 million Canadians cast ballots for New Democrats. On April 28th, they earned 1.2 million votes. A serious period of reflection by the labour movement, who helped found the NDP, among others, is critical if renewal of the country’s social democratic option is to occur.

The Green Party of Canada achieved one per cent of the vote and shot themselves in the foot through their “strategic voting” decision to stand down some of their nominated candidates, apparently to stop Mr. Poilievre, thereby disqualifying themselves from the only two national party leader debates. Their future appears bleak.

The Bloc Quebecois also lost support as Quebec voters shifted to the Liberals, joining the rest of the country in concluding that Mr. Carney was best positioned to deal with the Trump threat.  For now, Quebec separatism moves to the back burner.

As remarkable as the rise of Mr. Carney is, and the victory his party achieved, it is almost certainly a pyrrhic victory. Canada will not become the 51st state, but Mr. Trump can and will inflict harm to our economy including thousands of workers in key industries such as auto, steel and forestry. 

A failing economy and rising unemployment will dominate in the near term. A recession is a distinct possibility.

Other critical issues, including housing, immigration and health care, not to mention ever-present provincial – federal tensions, will be on Mr. Carney’s plate.

But, as they say, the toughest days in power are better than the best days in opposition, and Mr. Carney assumes power with a divided and weakened opposition in parliament. Time will tell if his run of luck continues, or not. I wish him well.