In the eight months since the beginning of the Trump 2.0 era, much has been written about his attempts to alter global trade patterns through tariff policies. Disruption has been the order of the day, many have felt the impacts of the tariffs, as Canadians know all too well.
American workers are also feeling the pinch as the tariffs represent a huge tax hike for them, and sluggish American economic growth is but one outcome of this unorthodox 19th century policy approach.
At another critical level, Trump 2.0 sees global security in flux as America turns inward and China and Russia move from consolidating to expanding their spheres of influence.
It seems a distant memory, but it was only one year ago, during the U.S. election, that Trump bragged he would have the Russia – Ukraine war settled within a day of assuming office.
Early on in his second term, he turned to another war, in the Middle East, proudly announcing he could foresee peace between Israelis and Palestinians by way of moving Palestinians out of their homeland while it is developed for future tourism opportunities.
Once a developer, always a developer, seems to be what is behind such an approach to foreign diplomacy. Trump’s long-time friend, New York property developer Steve Witkoff serves as his envoy for Middle East and Ukrainian issues.
Such inept and ineffective diplomatic pursuits are prolonging both wars. This, in and of itself is bad enough, but the effect of bumbling U.S. foreign policy has far larger and longer-term consequences.
In his first term Trump, for reasons known only to him, met on three occasions with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, an unpredictable hereditary leader, bent upon securing nuclear power for his totalitarian regime. Trump extended a global profile to an archenemy of U.S. ally South Korea, and achieved nothing.
Earlier this year, Trump initiated a summit with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, held in Alaska. Here too, he hugged a rogue leader, in stark contrast to the fight he picked with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinsky in the oval office, and here too he achieved nothing in terms of advancing an end to the devastating war.
On the eve of his hosting a major gathering in Tianjin, Chinese Leader Xi Jinping offered his view on the state of the world, saying, “The international situation is both fluid and chaotic.”
The Chinese ensured they had both Mr. Putin and Kim Jong Un present as they displayed Chinese military might in commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Beyond showcasing China’s military might, Mr. Xi convened a meeting of the Shanghai Co-Operation Organization (SCO).
Founded in 2001, the SCO was originally made up of China, Russia and three other Central Asian countries. In September, it included representatives from India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus, along with a dozen other observer states.
Here too, China begins from a position of strength as their economic clout has expanded significantly in the past quarter century.
In 1995 the U.S. represented 24 per cent of global manufacturing, followed by Japan (12.6 per cent), Germany (8.4 per cent) and China (4.9 per cent).
By 2023 the UN’s Industrial Development Organization reported that China had emerged as the world leader with 32 per cent of global manufacturing, followed by the U.S. (15 per cent), Japan (6.6 per cent) and Germany (4.6 per cent).
Data for global shipbuilding and steel production tell similar stories. China’s economic miracle, invited by late 20th century globalization, determined to find cheap labour to supply Western consumers, has flipped global economic power dynamics unalterably.
To add insult to injury, as Mr. Trump assumes near total control over all aspects of U.S. policy making, trade relations, and monetary policy, his sole focus seems to be domestic, with a desire to recreate a 1950’s America that is long gone. That America will not re-emerge.
At the SCO gathering, Xi called for adherence to the UN international system including support for the multilateral trading system through the World Trade Organization. He urged members of his growing sphere of influence to avoid “Cold war mentality, bloc confrontation and bullying”.
It strikes me that while “Washington burns” the Chinese are playing the long game, as they slowly but steadily expand their global influence. For Canada, Europe and other democratic nations, the impact of this global shift is hugely consequential, and demands a Western response that begins with acceptance that the U.S. role as global leader is over.